Issue 13 of Sada al-Malahim is out today, and while I won't take the time to go through the whole journal (many other things to do), one thing did stand out to me and that was the news of the death of Nayyif bin Muhammad al-Qahtani.
His death was first reported by Hugh Macleod of the Guardian over the weekend. Interestingly, however, Macleod writes that he was killed in a shoot-out with Saudi forces in Saudi Arabia at some point during the last month. The news was curious and sparked a lot of questions, few of which had satisfactory answers. But today's issue of Sada al-Malahim clears much of this up.
The journal claims al-Qahtani was killed in one of the US strikes on Abyan. The mix-up in locations is, to my mind, a very interesting insight into the flow of information within AQAP. There is a lot here.
Now it is back to self-enforced silence.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
April 26: The Day that Was
Every so often - say once or twice every few months - it really does seem, at least from the outside, as if Yemen is falling apart, and, gasp, could become a failed state - whatever that means. (The feeling on the ground is usually quite different.) Today was one of those days.
This morning a suicide bomber, identified as Uthman 'Ali al-Salawi, attacked the British ambassador's convoy. But more on that below.
We'll start in the country's far north, where News Yemen has a piece on the rising tensions between Yahya al-Huthi and Sayf al-Washali over who best represents the Huthis abroad.
Staying up North, the Huthis' local representatives are accusing the government of attempting to kill the fragile true. According to unnamed sources in the Huthis' camp an individual named Ibn 'Aziz (yes, I know, very helpful) entered the al-Mahadhir Market southwest of the city of Sa'dah with a military escort and opened fire, injuring three shoppers. (For the full and very complicated story - of which there are many different versions read the above link.)
In the same Mareb Press story the Huthis suggest that the government is trying to instigate a series of revenge killings between the Huthis and local tribes in the region. According to the paper, all of this suggests a seventh war. So much for peace, or rather the absence of war.
Down south, but still related to the war in Sa'dah, a number of soldiers from Radfan staged a demonstration to secure their "rights," which they argue include things like being paid, dealing with the families of their dead comrades killed in the war, helping recent retirees and those who have recently married.
The soldiers, at least according to the story, were careful to disassociate themselves from the Southern Movement and they also disputed government claims that they were deserters, claiming that they had been separated from their unit in the fog of war. The soldiers wore their military uniforms but carried their personal weapons. The demonstration when through downtown Habiylayn before paying honor to their fallen friends.
The pictures are telling, and I don't think the government wants a bunch of trained (at least to some degree) and armed men angry with it. At the moment, they are still adhering to a traditional Yemeni method of seeking redress, let's hope it lasts.
Also, in the south, Ali al-Qarmush, the head of security for the city of al-Baydha, was removed from his position and replaced by Colonel Muhammad al-'Amari. The move reportedly came amidst a deteriorating security situation.
Now back to San'a, and more bad news. Quite separate from the attempted assassination this morning, the head of the JMP's high council, 'Abd al-Wahhab Mahmud, came under fire from unknown assailants this morning as he was riding in a car on Mujahid Street in San'a.
This brings us full circle back to the suicide attack on Britain's ambassador to Yemen, Tim Torlot. The attack targeted Torlot's convoy on his way to work in the new and heavily fortified British Embassy near the Movenpick. (Unfortunately, this is probably the only time Nuqum will be mentioned in the western press.)
The attacker is reportedly a 22-year-old from Taizz, who was a bit disconnected from society. He had been in and out of high schools, dropping out multiple times. There is still little that is known about his background, although I'm told that he was known to the security services. Not surprisingly, the government is conducting a series of raids in Hay Musayk, the neighborhood next to the US Embassy and below the British Embassy. This neighborhood has produced suicide bombers before - the attack on the Spanish tourists in 2007 - and that attacker also received training in Marib, just as the government is suggesting this one did.
(Incidentally, and possibly unrelated, a young Saudi was killed in Marib in a car crash today. There is no known link - nor does the article even suggest the possibility of one - but given where he died and his nationality the question at least has to be asked. That is, of course, one of the problems with security: everyone becomes suspect.)
This is not, as some analysts have said, the first time AQAP has attempted to assassinate an individual (Remember, Muhammad bin Nayyif?). What this attack means is, at the moment, difficult to tell. As I told Paul Stephens of the Global Post earlier today, what comes next will go a long way in determining how much damage the US and Yemen did to AQAP's infrastructure in the past few months.
It is always the next piece of information that is the most important.
Certainly most AQAP's national leaders have survived recent raids, although the organization did lose some regional figures, as well as a key safe house, which I believed served as a media hub for the organization. How extensive those losses were remains to be seen.
AQAP has consistently shown itself to be an incredibly resilient organization, capable of adapting to changing circumstances in Yemen.
This was not a particularly sophisticated or well-thought out strike.
This morning a suicide bomber, identified as Uthman 'Ali al-Salawi, attacked the British ambassador's convoy. But more on that below.
We'll start in the country's far north, where News Yemen has a piece on the rising tensions between Yahya al-Huthi and Sayf al-Washali over who best represents the Huthis abroad.
Staying up North, the Huthis' local representatives are accusing the government of attempting to kill the fragile true. According to unnamed sources in the Huthis' camp an individual named Ibn 'Aziz (yes, I know, very helpful) entered the al-Mahadhir Market southwest of the city of Sa'dah with a military escort and opened fire, injuring three shoppers. (For the full and very complicated story - of which there are many different versions read the above link.)
In the same Mareb Press story the Huthis suggest that the government is trying to instigate a series of revenge killings between the Huthis and local tribes in the region. According to the paper, all of this suggests a seventh war. So much for peace, or rather the absence of war.
Down south, but still related to the war in Sa'dah, a number of soldiers from Radfan staged a demonstration to secure their "rights," which they argue include things like being paid, dealing with the families of their dead comrades killed in the war, helping recent retirees and those who have recently married.
The soldiers, at least according to the story, were careful to disassociate themselves from the Southern Movement and they also disputed government claims that they were deserters, claiming that they had been separated from their unit in the fog of war. The soldiers wore their military uniforms but carried their personal weapons. The demonstration when through downtown Habiylayn before paying honor to their fallen friends.
The pictures are telling, and I don't think the government wants a bunch of trained (at least to some degree) and armed men angry with it. At the moment, they are still adhering to a traditional Yemeni method of seeking redress, let's hope it lasts.
Also, in the south, Ali al-Qarmush, the head of security for the city of al-Baydha, was removed from his position and replaced by Colonel Muhammad al-'Amari. The move reportedly came amidst a deteriorating security situation.
Now back to San'a, and more bad news. Quite separate from the attempted assassination this morning, the head of the JMP's high council, 'Abd al-Wahhab Mahmud, came under fire from unknown assailants this morning as he was riding in a car on Mujahid Street in San'a.
This brings us full circle back to the suicide attack on Britain's ambassador to Yemen, Tim Torlot. The attack targeted Torlot's convoy on his way to work in the new and heavily fortified British Embassy near the Movenpick. (Unfortunately, this is probably the only time Nuqum will be mentioned in the western press.)
The attacker is reportedly a 22-year-old from Taizz, who was a bit disconnected from society. He had been in and out of high schools, dropping out multiple times. There is still little that is known about his background, although I'm told that he was known to the security services. Not surprisingly, the government is conducting a series of raids in Hay Musayk, the neighborhood next to the US Embassy and below the British Embassy. This neighborhood has produced suicide bombers before - the attack on the Spanish tourists in 2007 - and that attacker also received training in Marib, just as the government is suggesting this one did.
(Incidentally, and possibly unrelated, a young Saudi was killed in Marib in a car crash today. There is no known link - nor does the article even suggest the possibility of one - but given where he died and his nationality the question at least has to be asked. That is, of course, one of the problems with security: everyone becomes suspect.)
This is not, as some analysts have said, the first time AQAP has attempted to assassinate an individual (Remember, Muhammad bin Nayyif?). What this attack means is, at the moment, difficult to tell. As I told Paul Stephens of the Global Post earlier today, what comes next will go a long way in determining how much damage the US and Yemen did to AQAP's infrastructure in the past few months.
It is always the next piece of information that is the most important.
Certainly most AQAP's national leaders have survived recent raids, although the organization did lose some regional figures, as well as a key safe house, which I believed served as a media hub for the organization. How extensive those losses were remains to be seen.
AQAP has consistently shown itself to be an incredibly resilient organization, capable of adapting to changing circumstances in Yemen.
This was not a particularly sophisticated or well-thought out strike.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Week in Review: Tribal Conflict Edition
According to reports in al-Sahwa and al-Tagheer, soldiers from the 312th brigade have besieged the villages in al-Zuwar, which is located in the Surwah district of Marib in an effort to capture an individual who allegedly fired an RPG at an oil dispatch station in the region of Kufal in Marib. (I'm at a loss to locate Kufal as it doesn't show up in my geographical dictionary, and like any good blogger I am only as good as my sources.)
According to al-Sahwa the attempted attack was carried out by a member of the Al Tu'ayman tribe in retaliation for the death of a relative at the hands of security forces. The same clan has recently been involved in a number of clashes with the Ministry of the Interior over a plot of land in San'a, which is being claimed by both a shaykh from Al Tu'ayman and the Ministry of the Interior. The disproportionate response may be the result of cumulative actions on both sides - the villagers have asked President Salih to step in to mediate.
Farther south, on the border between Marib and Shabwa, a tribal clash broke out between Al Ishaq - a branch of 'Abidah - and Al Dhayf Allah - a tribe from the Harib district of Marib. The fighting, which has wounded at least 5, broke out after Al Ishaq gathered to protest the death of one of their tribesmen at the hands of someone in Al Dhayf Allah. The original killing is not explained.
Finally, even farther south in Shabwa, four soldiers from the Central Security Forces were wounded when they came under fire from unknown gunmen in the district of Habban on Wednesday. According to the report, the ambush was laid by tribesmen from Laqmush, who are from Habban and who were seeking either hostages or military equipment that they could use to pressure the government to release a tribesmen who has been imprisoned in Aden for more than six months.
I highlight these stories because - well, I like to trace tribal politics - and more broadly, at least for the readership of Waq al-waq, to illustrate how confusing the tribal landscape can be in Yemen. This is not a place for the uninformed to wander around without a map. Even San'a has more than its fair share of problems trying to understand the various strands of tribal politics throughout the country. And these examples were all from only two governorates.
According to al-Sahwa the attempted attack was carried out by a member of the Al Tu'ayman tribe in retaliation for the death of a relative at the hands of security forces. The same clan has recently been involved in a number of clashes with the Ministry of the Interior over a plot of land in San'a, which is being claimed by both a shaykh from Al Tu'ayman and the Ministry of the Interior. The disproportionate response may be the result of cumulative actions on both sides - the villagers have asked President Salih to step in to mediate.
Farther south, on the border between Marib and Shabwa, a tribal clash broke out between Al Ishaq - a branch of 'Abidah - and Al Dhayf Allah - a tribe from the Harib district of Marib. The fighting, which has wounded at least 5, broke out after Al Ishaq gathered to protest the death of one of their tribesmen at the hands of someone in Al Dhayf Allah. The original killing is not explained.
Finally, even farther south in Shabwa, four soldiers from the Central Security Forces were wounded when they came under fire from unknown gunmen in the district of Habban on Wednesday. According to the report, the ambush was laid by tribesmen from Laqmush, who are from Habban and who were seeking either hostages or military equipment that they could use to pressure the government to release a tribesmen who has been imprisoned in Aden for more than six months.
I highlight these stories because - well, I like to trace tribal politics - and more broadly, at least for the readership of Waq al-waq, to illustrate how confusing the tribal landscape can be in Yemen. This is not a place for the uninformed to wander around without a map. Even San'a has more than its fair share of problems trying to understand the various strands of tribal politics throughout the country. And these examples were all from only two governorates.
What Yemen Needs
We all know Yemen is in trouble: A resurgent al-Qaeda, a revolt in the north, increasingly violent actions in the south, no oil, no water, a growing youth bulge, declining literacy rates, extensive poverty and of course a weak currency that led to a new head of the Central Bank.
But none of those is what threatens Yemen's future. Instead, at least according to a meeting of scholars at al-Iman University, what Yemen really, truly needs is a department of Shari'a in its secondary schools.
But none of those is what threatens Yemen's future. Instead, at least according to a meeting of scholars at al-Iman University, what Yemen really, truly needs is a department of Shari'a in its secondary schools.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Depressing Story of the Day: April 20th Version (Upadated)
If the Yemeni government wants to ease tensions in the South it needs to be seen addressing some of the grievances in the South, at least that is the opinion of many. Simple and direct.
Unfortunately, even when it tries, this is sometimes easier said than done. This morning the governor of al-Dhal'a, Ali Qasim Talib, was forced to cancel his visit to the district of al-Juhaf where he was scheduled to lay the corner stones for some different educational and health projects. The reason: security threats. If the governor can't even travel in his governorate to inaugurate new projects what chance is there?
Update: Al-Tagheer provides more details on the story: apparently, the "security threats" were an explosion that went off near the governor's house in al-Dhal'a and a group of armed men that besieged the directer of al-Juhaf as he attempted to raise the flag of the republic above his office Tuesday morning. Not good when you can't even fly the flag in the south.
Unfortunately, even when it tries, this is sometimes easier said than done. This morning the governor of al-Dhal'a, Ali Qasim Talib, was forced to cancel his visit to the district of al-Juhaf where he was scheduled to lay the corner stones for some different educational and health projects. The reason: security threats. If the governor can't even travel in his governorate to inaugurate new projects what chance is there?
Update: Al-Tagheer provides more details on the story: apparently, the "security threats" were an explosion that went off near the governor's house in al-Dhal'a and a group of armed men that besieged the directer of al-Juhaf as he attempted to raise the flag of the republic above his office Tuesday morning. Not good when you can't even fly the flag in the south.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
War on the Man'a Boys
Lolita C. Baldor, who does excellent work for the AP, has this story on the Treasury Department freezing the assets of certain individuals who are either "involved in piracy off Somalia's coast or militants who have done anything to threaten the shaky nation's stability."
Any names stand out?
For me it was Faris Muhammad Man'a, a prominent shaykh from Sa'dah and arms trader - although he has many other business interests - and the brother of the former governor of Sa'dah. Faris is incredibly well-connected, or at least he was well-connected and not just in Yemen. He also used to have extensive holdings in the US, so there may still be a great deal for the US to go after.
Still it is interesting to see the US go after him not for his role in a particular incident in Saudi Arabia, but rather for his role in Somalia. Hmmm.
Any names stand out?
For me it was Faris Muhammad Man'a, a prominent shaykh from Sa'dah and arms trader - although he has many other business interests - and the brother of the former governor of Sa'dah. Faris is incredibly well-connected, or at least he was well-connected and not just in Yemen. He also used to have extensive holdings in the US, so there may still be a great deal for the US to go after.
Still it is interesting to see the US go after him not for his role in a particular incident in Saudi Arabia, but rather for his role in Somalia. Hmmm.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
al-Awlaki and other articles.
I have a new article out in Newsweek that argues that any benefits from assassinating al-Awlaki should be weighed carefully against not only the questionable legality of such a strike but also the limited utility of killing this particular American.
For another take on al-Awlaki see Michelle Shephard's piece from the Toronto Star over the weekend.
And finally for those who have been keeping up with the links on the side, I had a recent article in the National on the coming struggle between Shaykh Hamid al-Ahmar and Ahmad Ali Abdullah Salih, which drew some interesting responses from Yemen.
For another take on al-Awlaki see Michelle Shephard's piece from the Toronto Star over the weekend.
And finally for those who have been keeping up with the links on the side, I had a recent article in the National on the coming struggle between Shaykh Hamid al-Ahmar and Ahmad Ali Abdullah Salih, which drew some interesting responses from Yemen.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Week in Review: Respect Yourself
Yemen took a number of hits this week - what's new? - including this report by Human Rights Watch, calling for investigations into past war crimes in Sa 'dah. I'm not sold that it would be a good idea to ask the Huthis to carry out investigations and, presumably, carry out extra-judicial punishments.
Still the report does a good job of bring a lot of attention to bear on an often misunderstood conflict, as I mention in this report by Charles Fromm. (There is still much of the history of this war that is left to be written, I know as I have just spent weeks of my free time piecing together a history of the first three rounds.)
But in a positive step that nearly everyone missed, a report on land seizures was delivered to parliament. And, as should be expected with such an incendiary topic, fireworks ensued, particularly between the Speaker of Parliament, Yahya Ali al-Ra'i, a member of GPC from Dhammar and 'Abd al-Karim Shayban, an Islah MP from Taizz.
The two went at it with the type of gusto that would make British Parliamentarians proud - I haven't read a transcript - but my favorite quotes come from this News Yemen article (although it seems a touch heavy to focus on the education credentials of two other MPS). At one point al-Ra'i cutoff the microphone while Shayban was speaking - or insulting him, depending on one's view - and called for the parliamentarian guards to expel Shayban from the chambers, only to have the guards rebuffed by other MPs. Sounds like a rocking good time, almost like the time a bull got loose in the chambers.
News Yemen also does everyone a favor and publishes the list of names from the report - I was quite surprised with some of the big names listed. (Although it does take some searching at times, since some of the names are incomplete in the style of first name, father's name, grandfather's name, and no surname. Oh well, such is life. That is why we need researchers.)
Still, just as Yemen is rightly criticized for its mistakes so too should it be praised for taking such difficult and positive steps. It is important not to go too far, this is only a first step and the list is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. But I think it is incredibly important, despite all the obvious imperfections with the report and how it has been handled to date.
In other news, Muhammad al-Ahmadi has another great article analyzing the recent AQAP tape.
The Saudi paper, Ukaz, claims that the top AQAP leaders are picking up shop and heading to Somalia. I have my doubts about the sourcing of this article - remember last summer when everyone said AQ was moving from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Yemen?
The al-'Awlaq tribe warned against targeting Anwar al-'Awlaqi, but more on that later - hopefully.
Still the report does a good job of bring a lot of attention to bear on an often misunderstood conflict, as I mention in this report by Charles Fromm. (There is still much of the history of this war that is left to be written, I know as I have just spent weeks of my free time piecing together a history of the first three rounds.)
But in a positive step that nearly everyone missed, a report on land seizures was delivered to parliament. And, as should be expected with such an incendiary topic, fireworks ensued, particularly between the Speaker of Parliament, Yahya Ali al-Ra'i, a member of GPC from Dhammar and 'Abd al-Karim Shayban, an Islah MP from Taizz.
The two went at it with the type of gusto that would make British Parliamentarians proud - I haven't read a transcript - but my favorite quotes come from this News Yemen article (although it seems a touch heavy to focus on the education credentials of two other MPS). At one point al-Ra'i cutoff the microphone while Shayban was speaking - or insulting him, depending on one's view - and called for the parliamentarian guards to expel Shayban from the chambers, only to have the guards rebuffed by other MPs. Sounds like a rocking good time, almost like the time a bull got loose in the chambers.
News Yemen also does everyone a favor and publishes the list of names from the report - I was quite surprised with some of the big names listed. (Although it does take some searching at times, since some of the names are incomplete in the style of first name, father's name, grandfather's name, and no surname. Oh well, such is life. That is why we need researchers.)
Still, just as Yemen is rightly criticized for its mistakes so too should it be praised for taking such difficult and positive steps. It is important not to go too far, this is only a first step and the list is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. But I think it is incredibly important, despite all the obvious imperfections with the report and how it has been handled to date.
In other news, Muhammad al-Ahmadi has another great article analyzing the recent AQAP tape.
The Saudi paper, Ukaz, claims that the top AQAP leaders are picking up shop and heading to Somalia. I have my doubts about the sourcing of this article - remember last summer when everyone said AQ was moving from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Yemen?
The al-'Awlaq tribe warned against targeting Anwar al-'Awlaqi, but more on that later - hopefully.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Missing the story for the fireworks
The big news coming out of Yemen today is that roughly 40 prisoners - southern activists - escaped from a jail in al-Dhala after a guard threw a hand grenade in a vain attempt to break up a demonstration. This, I believe, is big news simply because something exploded and newspapers and their reporters are enamored of big bangs.
Much more important news, at least in my opinion, is this report from al-Tagheer that details a group of soldiers - and veterans of the war in Sa'dah - seizing a pair of military transports on Tuesday evening in protest over some of their comrades who are being detained in San'a and as a way putting pressure on the government to release their salaries. There are no explosions, but instances like this are much more important for the future trajectory of the crisis in the south - oh yeah, the soldiers are from the south - than the escape of a few handfuls of prisoners.
Also, raising alarm bells this week is the robbery of nearly 80 million Yemeni Riyals from a government car in Abyan that was carrying salaries of eduction and health officials. This report from al-Tagheer suggests that the robbers are militants and that the money will ultimately find its way to al-Qaeda.
Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports on an ambush in Shabwa that cost the military two soldiers.
And finally, Kelly McEvers of NPR has this report from Yemen on Guantanamo. I'm a big fan of McEvers and respect her reporting, but I disagree sharply with Letta Tayler's take in the piece that the problem in repatriating Yemeni detainees is President Salih:
Still, it is nice to see that identity still matters when speaking to reporters. All the Yemenis blame Obama (and the Umar Faurq) for not following through on his promise, while the American blames Salih.
Much more important news, at least in my opinion, is this report from al-Tagheer that details a group of soldiers - and veterans of the war in Sa'dah - seizing a pair of military transports on Tuesday evening in protest over some of their comrades who are being detained in San'a and as a way putting pressure on the government to release their salaries. There are no explosions, but instances like this are much more important for the future trajectory of the crisis in the south - oh yeah, the soldiers are from the south - than the escape of a few handfuls of prisoners.
Also, raising alarm bells this week is the robbery of nearly 80 million Yemeni Riyals from a government car in Abyan that was carrying salaries of eduction and health officials. This report from al-Tagheer suggests that the robbers are militants and that the money will ultimately find its way to al-Qaeda.
Al-Sharq al-Awsat reports on an ambush in Shabwa that cost the military two soldiers.
And finally, Kelly McEvers of NPR has this report from Yemen on Guantanamo. I'm a big fan of McEvers and respect her reporting, but I disagree sharply with Letta Tayler's take in the piece that the problem in repatriating Yemeni detainees is President Salih:
Tayler says the problem is that Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh lacks the will to pursue such a solution.
"If President Saleh sees the repatriation of Yemenis as a political asset at any given moment, he will advocate for that. If he does not see it as politically expedient at any given moment, he won't. And a lot of the time, he does not see it as politically expedient, he sees it as a headache," Tayler says.
I'm not sure how anyone can look at the current mess that is Guantanamo and blame President Salih for the fact that the Yemenis are still there. This is, in my mind, a horrible misunderstanding of the situation.Still, it is nice to see that identity still matters when speaking to reporters. All the Yemenis blame Obama (and the Umar Faurq) for not following through on his promise, while the American blames Salih.
Monday, March 29, 2010
AQAP, PSO and other factoids
There is a new AQAP audiotape, The Crusader Attack on Yemen, out today from one of the group's religious figures, 'Adil al-'Abab. Al-'Abab, who also goes by the kunya Abu Zubayr, has released previous audio tapes for AQAP.
I haven't had the time to parse the tape yet, although I doubt it deals with Margret Warner's revelations for the PBS Newshour last week that the US was behind the December 17 strikes in Abyan, which killed a number of civilians. Still, that news will fit nicely into AQAP's narrative.
Instead, al-'Abab's appearance reminded me of this brief from News Yemen that I read over the weekend. The brief mentions that Yemen has released 'Imad and 'Abdullah bin Hamil after holding them for more than a month in a vain attempt to force the hand of a third brother that the government believes is a member of AQAP.
Yemen, of course, also attempted this tactic with al-'Abab's three brothers - in a case Muhammad al-Ahmadi has detailed wonderfully in a report I can't locate at the moment - but with little luck there as well. And, also with the eldest brother of the al-Rabi'i family. No luck there either.
Finally, and also on the AQAP front I read this curious piece from Jeff Stein's blog at the Washington Post, SpyTalk, of which I am a fan.
In his post about possible links between the PSO and al-Qaeda - this has long been alleged, although the NSB seems to be handling most of the AQAP portfolio at the moment - he quotes the "reliable Paris-based Intelligence Online newsletter:"
“In 2006,” the IO newsletter continues, “Political Security let Nasser al-Wahayshi, the former secretary of Osama bin Laden, and a dozen of his associates escape from prison in Sanaa. The escapees are believed to have established jihadists camps in the province of Chabwa, to the east of Sanaa. Political Security is run by Ghaled al-Qimch, President Ali Abdallah Saleh’s trusted right hand man.”
Now I know nothing about the Intelligence Online newsletter, but I would be wary of calling something reliable when it can't even get the name of the top official in the PSO correct (I will leave off the French transliteration of a shin as ch). The correct name is Ghalib Mutahir al-Qamish.
Names matter, as the countless lists of terrorism suspects demonstrate. Just because they are foreign and hard to pronounce doesn't mean they aren't important.
I haven't had the time to parse the tape yet, although I doubt it deals with Margret Warner's revelations for the PBS Newshour last week that the US was behind the December 17 strikes in Abyan, which killed a number of civilians. Still, that news will fit nicely into AQAP's narrative.
Instead, al-'Abab's appearance reminded me of this brief from News Yemen that I read over the weekend. The brief mentions that Yemen has released 'Imad and 'Abdullah bin Hamil after holding them for more than a month in a vain attempt to force the hand of a third brother that the government believes is a member of AQAP.
Yemen, of course, also attempted this tactic with al-'Abab's three brothers - in a case Muhammad al-Ahmadi has detailed wonderfully in a report I can't locate at the moment - but with little luck there as well. And, also with the eldest brother of the al-Rabi'i family. No luck there either.
Finally, and also on the AQAP front I read this curious piece from Jeff Stein's blog at the Washington Post, SpyTalk, of which I am a fan.
In his post about possible links between the PSO and al-Qaeda - this has long been alleged, although the NSB seems to be handling most of the AQAP portfolio at the moment - he quotes the "reliable Paris-based Intelligence Online newsletter:"
“In 2006,” the IO newsletter continues, “Political Security let Nasser al-Wahayshi, the former secretary of Osama bin Laden, and a dozen of his associates escape from prison in Sanaa. The escapees are believed to have established jihadists camps in the province of Chabwa, to the east of Sanaa. Political Security is run by Ghaled al-Qimch, President Ali Abdallah Saleh’s trusted right hand man.”
Now I know nothing about the Intelligence Online newsletter, but I would be wary of calling something reliable when it can't even get the name of the top official in the PSO correct (I will leave off the French transliteration of a shin as ch). The correct name is Ghalib Mutahir al-Qamish.
Names matter, as the countless lists of terrorism suspects demonstrate. Just because they are foreign and hard to pronounce doesn't mean they aren't important.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Sunday Papers: The Zaydis
Despite the recent truce between the government and the Huthis in the north, things are far from settled.
Today, the Huthis announced that they were vacating 20 positions around the city of Sa'dah - many of these strategically important - but the newly appointed governor of Sa'dah, Taha Hajir, greeted the news with comments on how slowly the Huthis were implementing the six points.
Hizb al-Haqq also made noise today condemning a move by the Ministry of Religious Endowments, which it claimed is being made to undermine Zaydis in Yemen. Hizb al-Haqq paid particular attention to the Great Mosque, which was at the heart of events leading up to the first al-Huthi war in 2004.
Finally, the head of the local council in Sa 'dah gave this interview to al-Ghad. Much of what he said was predictable, but I found it interesting who was saying it. The al-'Imad family is an intriguing one in Zaydi politics.
And last, but not least, in AQ news a German citizen of African (read, I believe, Somali) descent attempted to shoot his way out of the Republican Hospital in San'a today. The suspect, who is being identified as Sharif Mubayli, was unsuccessful in his bid to escape but he did kill one guard from the PSO.
Today, the Huthis announced that they were vacating 20 positions around the city of Sa'dah - many of these strategically important - but the newly appointed governor of Sa'dah, Taha Hajir, greeted the news with comments on how slowly the Huthis were implementing the six points.
Hizb al-Haqq also made noise today condemning a move by the Ministry of Religious Endowments, which it claimed is being made to undermine Zaydis in Yemen. Hizb al-Haqq paid particular attention to the Great Mosque, which was at the heart of events leading up to the first al-Huthi war in 2004.
Finally, the head of the local council in Sa 'dah gave this interview to al-Ghad. Much of what he said was predictable, but I found it interesting who was saying it. The al-'Imad family is an intriguing one in Zaydi politics.
And last, but not least, in AQ news a German citizen of African (read, I believe, Somali) descent attempted to shoot his way out of the Republican Hospital in San'a today. The suspect, who is being identified as Sharif Mubayli, was unsuccessful in his bid to escape but he did kill one guard from the PSO.
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
'Urf, again
It has been just under a month since I made the decision to drastically reduce my posts - one a month, or so - and while I'm still trying to figure out what do with Waq al-waq and while I had a spare ten minutes I thought it would A.) be nice to see if the blogging muscles still worked and B.) highlight a couple of things that I have not seen discussed much in the English-language press.
Much has happened in the last month - a new issue of Sada al-Malahim (I was impressed with a couple of things in the journal - one with tribes and one with the organization's sensitivity to currents in Yemeni society) a new AQ video, Towards an Honorable Life, an end to the Sixth war in Sa'dah and increasing tensions in the south.
But what I want to highlight today is this interview with Abdalilah Haydar Shay'a, a very bright Yemeni analyst and journalist. (For those who haven't noticed al-Sharq al-Awsat is running quite the series on Yemen.)
I have only skimmed the article, but he said three things that I thought were important. First, in response to a question about the names of AQAP's leaders he spoke about his meeting with the organization in January 2009 and mentioned that it was possible that some of the men at the meeting - individuals who didn't speak - where not Arabs. This is not good.
He also had this to say about the areas where US/Yemeni attacks took place in December and January (my rough translation): "The areas that were struck have nothing in them in the way of services .. no water, no electricity, no roads, no schools and no hospitals." Telling, I think.
Finally, it did my heart good to see him mention 'urf.
Much has happened in the last month - a new issue of Sada al-Malahim (I was impressed with a couple of things in the journal - one with tribes and one with the organization's sensitivity to currents in Yemeni society) a new AQ video, Towards an Honorable Life, an end to the Sixth war in Sa'dah and increasing tensions in the south.
But what I want to highlight today is this interview with Abdalilah Haydar Shay'a, a very bright Yemeni analyst and journalist. (For those who haven't noticed al-Sharq al-Awsat is running quite the series on Yemen.)
I have only skimmed the article, but he said three things that I thought were important. First, in response to a question about the names of AQAP's leaders he spoke about his meeting with the organization in January 2009 and mentioned that it was possible that some of the men at the meeting - individuals who didn't speak - where not Arabs. This is not good.
He also had this to say about the areas where US/Yemeni attacks took place in December and January (my rough translation): "The areas that were struck have nothing in them in the way of services .. no water, no electricity, no roads, no schools and no hospitals." Telling, I think.
Finally, it did my heart good to see him mention 'urf.
Friday, February 5, 2010
An End to All That
A little less than a year ago Brian and I started this blog. What for me began as an amusing diversion has, nearly 12 months later, become an unhealthy distraction. I work slowly, preferring a day researching tribal genealogies to writing about al-Qaeda.
The work I love to spend my time on rarely has policy implications and I prefer it that way. I am free to read, write and think unfettered by outside restraints that I believe can often limit both creativity and discovery, or at least what passes for discovery in my world.
Initially, the blog was a forum for me to play with my thoughts in a different format. In a sense, it was a way for me to approach old problems from new angles, to break down some of the well-worn ruts in which my mind tends to travel in the absence of resistance. This is no longer the case. My first reaction on reading something on Yemen now is: "I should post something on this." This is neither helpful, healthy or wise. My best thoughts are rarely rash. Instead they are the result of careful consideration not immediate impressions.
One bright young academic, whom I greatly respect, once told me that blogging gives one the same sense of immediate gratification as do scratch-off lottery tickets. He was, of course, correct. And, I would add, it is just as addicting. So, at least for me and at least for the moment, the time has come to bring Waq al-waq to an end. Or at least an end in its current form, the blog will remain up but posts will be reduced to the rate of around one per month.
Brian will continue to blog at Always Judged Guilty , and thankfully, for his many fans, he will not limit himself to the straight-jacket of Yemen-only blogging. He is one of my favorite writers. I hope you keep reading him. I know I will.
The work I love to spend my time on rarely has policy implications and I prefer it that way. I am free to read, write and think unfettered by outside restraints that I believe can often limit both creativity and discovery, or at least what passes for discovery in my world.
Initially, the blog was a forum for me to play with my thoughts in a different format. In a sense, it was a way for me to approach old problems from new angles, to break down some of the well-worn ruts in which my mind tends to travel in the absence of resistance. This is no longer the case. My first reaction on reading something on Yemen now is: "I should post something on this." This is neither helpful, healthy or wise. My best thoughts are rarely rash. Instead they are the result of careful consideration not immediate impressions.
One bright young academic, whom I greatly respect, once told me that blogging gives one the same sense of immediate gratification as do scratch-off lottery tickets. He was, of course, correct. And, I would add, it is just as addicting. So, at least for me and at least for the moment, the time has come to bring Waq al-waq to an end. Or at least an end in its current form, the blog will remain up but posts will be reduced to the rate of around one per month.
Brian will continue to blog at Always Judged Guilty , and thankfully, for his many fans, he will not limit himself to the straight-jacket of Yemen-only blogging. He is one of my favorite writers. I hope you keep reading him. I know I will.
Really easy tea leaves
GENEVA - The United Nations food agency said on Friday a lack of funds had forced it to cut back rations for around one million people in Yemen, despite growing chronic hunger.
How this plays out will go a long way in telling you how closely rhetoric and reality will match up.
How this plays out will go a long way in telling you how closely rhetoric and reality will match up.
Kerry on Yemen
US Senator John Kerry has an op-ed in The National today on the way forward for Yemen.
He makes a number of very good points. The most important of which, in my mind, is opening GCC countries back up to Yemeni labor. There is no silver bullet solution to Yemen's problems. Instead, there have to be a variety of different steps taken and, in my opinion, opening the GCC back up to Yemenis is the single most important step that can have the most impact in the near term.
He makes a number of very good points. The most important of which, in my mind, is opening GCC countries back up to Yemeni labor. There is no silver bullet solution to Yemen's problems. Instead, there have to be a variety of different steps taken and, in my opinion, opening the GCC back up to Yemenis is the single most important step that can have the most impact in the near term.
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